Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Week 3 Recap


I was standing on the corner of 14th and 8th yesterday, waiting for the traffic light to change, and I overheard part of a conversation between two homeless men. One of them was stumbling off, and the other one wished him well as he left. "Get home safely," he said. I thought that was a very strange thing to say to a homeless person.

You know what else is a strange thing to say? "I'm willing to stake my reputation on Matt's success." That's what Bill Ford, the owner of the Detroit Lions, said after Matt Millen was introduced at a news conference after his hiring in 2001. Since then, Millen's Lions have gone an astonishing 31-84 — more losses than any other team in that span. Coincidentally, the U.S. auto industry — and, by extension, Bill Ford's reputation — is doing just about as well as Millen.

And if the Detroit Lions are a microcosm for the U.S. auto industry, the quarterback position in Kansas City is analogous to a three-car pileup. Which brings me to the first of my tidbits, morsels, and nuggets this week.

1. Marques Hagans is the 21st-ranked quarterback (unqualified) in the NFL. Haven't heard of him? Neither had I until yesterday, which may be because he's the Chiefs' fifth receiver, and he was an undrafted free-agent rookie last season who had eight catches. But he is 1-for-1 for 2 yards, giving him a quarterback rating of 87.5 — the highest on the team. Damon Huard, who is starting against the Broncos on Sunday, has a QB rating of 70.6; Brodie Croyle is just behind him at 69.6; and Tyler Thigpen sits at an embarrassing 38.3.

2. In other poor-quarterbacking news, it turns out that Derek Anderson may not be so good. A Pro Bowler last season despite throwing 11 interceptions with only 12 touchdowns and a 56.2 completion percentage in the last nine weeks of the season, Anderson has posted a quarterback of 43.5, one spot ahead of the aforementioned Tyler Thigpen.

Although he's getting no help from his receivers (Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow drop the ball more than FEMA) and the defenses he has played all rank in the top 10 (and Baltimore and Pittsburgh are first and second, respectively -- possibly because they got to boost their numbers against the Browns), the truth is that when a team is drastically underperforming, the quarterback and the coach are the people to take the most heat.

And Romeo Crennel isn't messing around with leaving the heat on himself. He is giving Brady Quinn more reps in practice, paving the way for him to take over for Anderson sooner rather than later. If Anderson doesn't step up against the Bengals this weekend, don't be surprised to see Quinn under center after the Browns bye in Week 5.

3. Anderson isn't the only struggling quarterback in the AFC North. Ben Roethlisberger is by far the highest-rated passer in the division with a 98.6 quarterback rating, good for 11th in the league. Carson Palmer is 27th with a 63.8 rating (one spot behind Tarvaris Jackson) and Joe Flacco's 55.7 is good for 29th in the league. In Week 3, the four quarterbacks went a combined 67 for 120 (55.8 percent) for 671 yards (an average of less than 168 yards each), 2 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

4. Here's my weekly proof of how bad the St. Louis Rams are (other than the fact that they're ranked 31st in points per game and total yards per game, and dead last in points and total yards allowed per game). Last season, the Rams didn't get their first victory until Week 10. How does this year's team compare to that one?

2007 Rams
Lost 13 games by an average of 15.4 points.
16.4 PPG scored
27.4 PPG allowed
95.4 YPG rushing
222.5 YPG passing

2008 Rams
In three losses, they have been beaten by an average of 29 points. Their closest game so far was a 24-point loss to the Seahawks.
9.6 PPG scored (-6.9 from 2007)
38.6 PPG allowed (+11.2, but not in a good way)
56.3 YPG rushing (-39.1)
173 YPG passing (-49.5)

Just for kicks, let's compare them with the 2007 Miami Dolphins, who didn't get their first win until Week 15 and finished the season 1-15.

2007 Dolphins
In their 15 losses, the Dolphins got beat by an average of 11.7 points. They had six losses by 3 points or fewer. Surprisingly (or not), the 2007 Rams and 2007 Dolphins have nearly identical stats, which makes them significantly better than this year's Rams.
16.7 PPG scored
27.3 PPG allowed
98 YPG rushing
207.4 YPG passing

5. The Buffalo Bills, at 3-0, are now leading the AFC East after the Patriots got embarrassed by the Dolphins in Week 3. Not only do the Bills have a better record, they have scored more points (78 to 49) and allowed fewer (49 to 58). The Patriots haven't been out of first place in the AFC East since Week 4 of 2005; the Bills haven't been in first place since Week 2 of 2003 (they finished 6-10 that season).

6. Where is Randy Moss? I realize Matt Cassel isn't Tom Brady (or, apparently, JaMarcus Russell, Chad Pennington, or Kerry Collins), but he has to eventually get the ball to Moss. So far this season, Moss has 12 catches for 163 yards and 1 touchdown. Last season, Moss had eight single games with more touchdowns than he has in three games this season. And in weeks 2 and 3 combined, he had as many catches as Jabar Gaffney did on Sunday, for 4 fewer yards. On the upside, the Patriots face only two tough defenses the rest of the season — the Bills and the Steelers. And we'll see how long this surprising Bills defense can keep it up.

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